menu

Epidemiologisch nieuws

RSS-feed van deze nieuwsrubriek

Japan: 100.000 gevallen van longvlieskanker verwacht tot 2040

12-01-2006 00:00

Japanse onderzoekers schatten dat tot 2040 ongeveer 100.000 mensen aan longvlieskanker door asbestblootstelling zullen overlijden. Deze schatting is hoger dan in de meeste andere westerse landen. Dit komt doordat in Japan de grootschalige import van asbest veel langer is doorgegaan dan in veel andere landen zoals bijvoorbeeld Nederland. Tot 1990 werd er nog tussen de 250.000-300.000 ton asbest per jaar geïmporteerd. Pas daarna begon de daling. Toch werd er in 2002 nog 43000 ton asbest ingevoerd. Vanaf 2008 geldt er een totaal verbod op productie en gebruik van asbest. Bron: Murayama, T. et all. (2006). Estimation of future mortality from pleural malignant mesothelioma in Japan based on an age-cohort model. American Journal of Industrial Medicine, Volume 49, Issue 1 , Pages 1 - 7
Takehiko Murayama, PhD 1 *, Ken Takahashi, MD 2, Yuji Natori, MD 3, Norio Kurumatani, MD 4 . Estimation of future mortality from pleural malignant mesothelioma in Japan based on an age-cohort model. American Journal of Industrial Medicine, Volume 49, Issue 1 , Pages 1 - 7.

Abstract

Background


Japanese consumption of asbestos increased rapidly after the 1950s and lingered at a high level while the world's consumption decreased substantially after the 1980s. Mesothelioma is due primarily to asbestos, and the number of deaths in Japan is expected to increase in the future.

Method

We estimated the future number of pleural mesothelioma deaths among males in Japan using an age-cohort model.

Results

Analyses showed that there would be about 100,000 deaths in Japan due to pleural mesothelioma in the next 40 years. Compared with the statistics in European countries, the ratio of expected death numbers to the population size is remarkably close to linear. The data-point for Japan was slightly lower than that which could be expected from the linear relationship.

Conclusions

The limited availability of data may result in underestimation. Taking into consideration the consumption pattern of asbestos in recent decades, the incorporation of later cohorts will improve the estimation.