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Italië: verwachting: 800 mesothelioom-sterfgevallen per jaar tussen 2012 en 2024

18-10-2005 00:00

Italië was één van de asbestproducerende landen in Europa. Beschermende maatregelen tegen het gebruik van asbest werden er ongeveer 10 jaar later ingevoerd dan in de Noord Europese landen. Op basis van de ontwikkeling in het gebruik van asbest en het aantal mesothelioom-sterfgevallen tot 1999 werd in dit onderzoek een voorspelling gemaakt van het toekomstig aantal mesothelioom-sterfgevallen. Geschat wordt dat dit tussen 2012 en 2024 een piek zal bereiken van ongeveer 800 sterfgevallen per jaar. Bron: Marinaccio A et al. (2005). Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: a model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age-period-cohort models. Int J Cancer. May 20.115(1):142-7.

Marinaccio A, Montanaro F, Mastrantonio M, Uccelli R, Altavista P, Nesti M,

Costantini AS, Gorini G. Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: a model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age-period-cohort models. Int J Cancer. 2005 May 20.115(1):142-7.

Safety and Prevention, Rome, Italy. a.marinaccio@mdl.ale.ispesl.it

Abstract


Italy was the second main asbestos producer in Europe, after the Soviet Union,

until the end of the 1980s, and raw asbestos was imported on a large scale until

1992. The Italian pattern of asbestos consumption lags on average about 10 years

behind the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and the Nordic

countries. Measures to reduce exposure were introduced in the mid-1970s in some

workplaces. In 1986, limitations were imposed on the use of crocidolite and in

1992 asbestos was definitively banned. We have used primary pleural cancer

mortality figures (1970-1999) to predict mortality from mesothelioma among

Italian men in the next 30 years by age-cohort-period models and by a model

based on asbestos consumption figures. The pleural cancer/mesothelioma ratio and

mesothelioma misdiagnosis in the past were taken into account in the analysis.

Estimated risks of birth cohorts born after 1945 decrease less quickly in Italy

than in other Western countries. The findings predict a peak with about 800

mesothelioma annual deaths in the period 2012-2024. Results estimated using

age-period-cohort models were similar to those obtained from the asbestos

consumption model.