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VK: sterfte aan mesothelioom van 1968-2001 en prognose tot 2050

14-07-2005 00:00

Het aantal mensen dat in het Verenigd Koninkrijk in de periode 1968 tot 2001 aan mesothelioom is overleden is gestegen van 153 in 1968 tot 1848 in 2001. Naar schatting zal dit aantal oplopen tot 1950-2450 gevallen per jaar tussen 2011 en 2015 en daarna snel afnemen.De aandoening komt het meest voor in regio's waar in het verleden veel met asbest is gewerkt. Het komt steeds vaker voor bij mensen die in de secundaire asbestindustrie hebben gewerkt, zoals loodgieters, timmermannen en electriciens. Het totaal aantal sterfgevallen wordt in de periode 1968-2050 geschat op ongeveer 90.000, waarvan 65.000 na 2001.

Bron: Mcelvenny, D.M. et al.(2005. Occupational medicine, 55, 2, 79-87 + the British journal of cancer, 92, 3, 587-593(7).

Mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 1968 to 2001

Damien M. McElvenny, Andrew J. Darnton, Malcolm J. Price and John T. Hodgson

Health & Safety Executive - Epidemiology and Medical Statistics Unit, Stanley Precinct, Bootle, Merseyside L20 3QZ, UK

Background. The British mesothelioma register contains all deaths from 1968 to 2001 where mesothelioma was mentioned on the death certificate.

Aims. To present summary statistics of the British mesothelioma epidemic including summaries by occupation and geographical area.

Methods. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for local authorities, unitary authorities and counties. Temporal trends in SMRs were also examined. Proportional mortality ratios (PMRs) were calculated using the Southampton (based on the 1980 standard occupational classification) coding scheme. Temporal trends in PMRs were also examined.

Results The annual number of mesothelioma deaths has increased from 153 in 1968 to 1848 in 2001. Current deaths in males account for about 85% of the cases. The areas of West Dunbartonshire (SMR 637), Barrow-in-Furness (593), Plymouth (396) and Portsmouth (388) have the highest SMRs over the period 1981-2000. The occupations with the highest PMRs are metal plate workers (PMR 503), vehicle body builders (526), plumbers and gas fitters (413) and carpenters (388).

Conclusions. These data reinforce earlier findings that geographical areas and occupations associated with high exposure to asbestos in the past continue to drive the mesothelioma epidemic in Great Britain. However, the trends over time suggest a change in the balance of risk away from traditional asbestos exposure industries to industries where one could describe the exposure as secondary, such as plumbers and gas fitters, carpenters, and electricians.

The expected burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050

Hodgson, J.T.. Mcelvenny, D.M.. Darnton, A.J.. Price, M.J.. Peto, J. / In: The British journal of cancer. vol. 92 (2005), afl. 3, pag. 587-593 (7) / 2005

The British mesothelioma register contains all deaths from 1968 to 2001 where mesothelioma was mentioned on the death certificate. These data were used to predict the future burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain. Poisson regression analysis was used to model male mesothelioma deaths from 1968 to 2001 as a function of the rise and fall of asbestos exposure during the 20th century, and hence to predict numbers of male deaths in the years 2002-2050. The annual number of mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain has risen increasingly rapidly from 153 deaths in 1968 to 1848 in 2001 and, using our preferred model, is predicted to peak at around 1950 to 2450 deaths per year between 2011 and 2015. Following this peak, the number of deaths is expected to decline rapidly. The eventual death rate will depend on the background level and any residual asbestos exposure. Between 1968 and 2050, there will have been approximately 90 000 deaths from mesothelioma in Great Britain, 65 000 of which will occur after 2001.